I wrote a piece for the Freeman arguing that we are in The Age of Exit.
Instead of ideological battles, the 21st century will be defined by political decentralization. Rather than enforcing a single political model as ideal for all of humanity, people will instead choose from a sort of political menu. Political decisions will be made on a more localized level, encouraging experimentation and innovation.
I think my thesis is broadly true. However, for a short article I was unable to discuss several challenges, namely, China, Russia, the Middle East, and the EU. China has SEZs, however they are unlikely to allow the same amount of political autonomy as European nations facing independence movements. China is also pursuing assimilation policies to wipe out the Uyghur population in Xinjiang that would be untenable in Western countries. Russia is recently aggressive, however the drop in oil prices makes them less dangerous. The Middle East is having their borders redrawn. They are largely tribalist but have a unifying element in the Muslim faith. The EU has centralized some functions lowering the cost of independence movements in Europe. My thesis is overstated to the extent I do have not accounted for these counter trends.
Read : Winter In Black America
Ultimately changing geo-political trends are very complicated and will remain so. Humans will try to draw patterns out of limited data and extrapolate into the future without fully understanding the causes of the changes. I am certainly guilty of it. However, the mainstream narrative is currently missing an important trend, one that should be included in discussions of geo-politics, that of the increased power of political autonomy on a local scale.