Exit

Secession lagniappe

Claiming a 2.7 square-mile spot of land between Croatia and Serbia, a Czech libertarian has declared the Republic of Liberland as a sovereign micronation.  Croatia controls access to the disputed area but apparently does not formally claim it.  Straight from Liberland’s snazzy web presence:

Liberland came into existence due to a border dispute between Croatia and Serbia. This area along the west bank of the Danube river is not claimed by Croatia, Serbia or any other country. It was therefore terra nullius, a no man’s land, until Vít Jedlička seized the opportunity and on 13 April 2015 formed a new state in this territory – Liberland. The boundary was defined so as not to interfere with the territory of Croatia or Serbia. Its total area of approximately 7 km² is now the third smallest sovereign state, after the Vatican and Monaco.  The motto of Liberland is “To live and let live” because Liberland prides itself on personal and economic freedom of its people, which is guaranteed by the Constitution, which significantly limits the power of politicians so they could not interfere too much in the freedoms of the Liberland nation.

Chris Roth’s piece is a good overview but closes with a warning:

Of all these past attempts, President Jedlička might do well to note the fate of the Republic of Minerva.  He chose the Minerva Reefs because they were pieces of “land” that had fallen between the cracks of two established states, Fiji and Tonga, which were not claiming them.  But then as soon as the project got rolling, the neighbors changed their minds and wanted in on the project.  That ended badly.  Imagine how much uglier it could get if Jedlička not only lost his utopia invaded but found himself literally in the middle of a renewed territorial battle between Serbs and Croats.  Liberland might be in a pretty spot, but it’s one of the most volatile borders in recent history.

Vice and Quartz also have decent articles out.  The story is getting tons of play, with over 300,000 people applying for physical or digital residence.  It is getting enough play that perhaps a whole lot of people who have never before really thought about initial land acquisition, homesteading rights, the determinants of a state, the legitimacy of state power, the concept of national exit, and micronations… just did so.    No matter what, if anything, comes of Liberland, there is at least that positive.  Overall, I was struck by how seriously many outlets took the premise in their articles.

Why decentralism?

Mark Lutter’s Freeman piece on Google-run cities is up on Newsweek.  More Lutter & private cities.

Migrant deaths as Europe’s biggest challenge

More (see last lagniappe) on shared space roads from TAC

Quiz! Name all the six-letter countries.  (Who can beat 23?)

The blue-city model

Twelve “absurd” communist buildings still standing

Foreign policy hawk biases

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China is not loosening its electoral grip on Hong Kong.

Even more on Chinese island-building, micronations, history, & geopolitics all in one short article.

The chances of progress in Tibet.  I’m not very optimistic.

Big news: Largest party in Republika Srpska threatens a referendum on leaving Bosnia.

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Republika Srpska’s position within Bosnia

The Catalan (anti-independence) Ciudadanos party, highlighted on this blog before, might have a silver lining for fans of the market.

48% of Brits (vs. 34% against) think Scotland will be independent in the next twenty years.  Related: Is the Union doomed?

Lots of good comments on this Crooked Timber post on the U.K. and the SNP.

Hunger strikes for Corsican autonomy

More on Grexit.  Cowen on Grexit.

Novorossiya flags at UEFA qualifying matches

Losing their religion in Crimea

Headwinds in Kurdistan

Yemen then and now: The sad chronicle of a failed state

Very good deep-dive on where Somaliland stands

They’ve built their state now. 24 years and counting, and it’s got everything it should have: rule of law, elections, a basic respect for human rights. But far from being impressed, the international community shows little sign of noticing, let alone caring. Somalilanders are getting the message. And although they’re not yet willing to admit it, they are beginning to lose faith.

Mozambique’s parliament threw out the opposition party’s autonomy proposal, as expected.

Burundi could implode if things continue to go wrong.  It, unfortunately, does have all the ingredients.

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The State of Jefferson’s newest enemy:  The Keep It California PAC

Caribou, ME is postponing a public hearing on a split

Secessionist billboards in Arkansas

What would the demographics of a South Florida state look like?

Puerto Rican bankruptcy

(Image sources 1 & 2)

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Response to Romer on private cities

Paul Romer has commented skeptically on private cities in two recent interviews. Having written on private cities I thought I would take a second to respond.

First, in his own words “And my rule is that I will not support any public policy initiative for a new city if it is not the kind of place that I would be willing to go live or where I would want my children and grandchildren to live.”

I think this is the wrong criteria for judging public policy initiatives. A better way to judge public policy initiatives is whether they improve the lives of those who are targeted by the initiatives. There are many cities throughout the world that I doubt Paul Romer or his offspring would want to live in. However, those cities are inhabited by hundreds of millions of people who want better lives for themselves and their children.

Romer does argue for experimentation and does not seem wedded to a particular organizational structure of a Charter City. I agree that openness and experimentation is necessary in creating new cities. Unfortunately, Romer specifically contrasts his vision to that of private cities, suggesting private cities should not be allowed. Before specifically answering Romer’s critique I will offer a few comments defending private cities.

The basic argument is that profit encourages the effective provision of goods and services. A private city that fails to provide those goods and services would quickly go out of business. Romer correctly notes that this analogy is somewhat lacking. Moving to a new city is high cost. As such, exit in governance terms is always more costly than exiting a grocery store, as new grocery stores are easier to substitute.

One advantage of private cities is that the initial construction of a city is very costly. A private city would mean the cost of infrastructure would be provided privately, possibly saving a government billions of dollars.

Another advantage is the distinct organizational structure. One of the primary benefits of a new city, be it Charter or private, would be to create a new bureaucracy to escape corruption in the home country. A private city would have a strong incentive ensure the bureaucracy is entirely separated. Old bureaucratic influence would be more likely in a public vs. private partnership.

Romer’s primary critique comes down to police. I will quote him in full.

The track record of private police forces and private judicial proceedings is very bad. We have some of these in the United States run by private, but non-profit, universities. If the university has a sports program that generates lots of revenue and prestige, the university tends to protect athletes, typically men, who commit sexual violence, typically against woman. They do not offer anything like “equal protection under the law.” It is a telling illustration of how police and judicial proceedings can be bent to support the mission of the organization, even one like a university that we usually think of as being well intentioned, and fail to protect the people it is responsible for.

First, I think it is odd that in critiquing private, for profit cities, he uses the example of non-profit universities. However, I agree his point stands and must be thought about. Many informal sources I have read suggest similar things happen at hotels, petty crimes by wealthy patrons are somewhat ignored. That being said, I think Romer overestimates the police, in first world countries and especially in the developing world.

As the events of Ferguson and Baltimore illustrate, police have rarely lived up to the ideal of equal protection under the law. Freddie Gray likely died because of a nickel ride, a procedure where police do not strap a suspect in a police van and then drive recklessly. Chicago PD had a black site, and before that they literally tortured people. Stop and frisk, done by several major cities, but most prominently by New York City, is essentially the continual harassment of minority males. I would recommend Radley Balko’s excellent book if Romer is interested in modern policing in America.

However, Charter Cities and private cities can do the most good in the developing world. Unfortunately I am unaware of much literature on law enforcement in the developing world. That being said, it is assuredly worse than in America. Some friends from Honduras, which is the murder capital of the world, have told me stories which illustrate how bad law enforcement can get. I heard from several people that they fear the police more than they do the maras, the gang members. Other people have told me that women being arrested are usually sexually assaulted, if not raped.

Now, given the level of violence in Honduras, I imagine the police force there is more corrupt than average. However, when thinking about how to improve the world it is important to understand the world as it exists. And the world is currently filled with terrible poverty and predatory institutions. Private cities seem like they could reasonably be better than many of those institutions.

Romer then comments, “Unless someone is willing to specify whether there is a local police chief and how he/she is appointed and held accountable, any suggestion they make about private cities can be dismissed as frivolous.”

This question does not strike me as particularly difficult. The obvious answer is the police chief would be appointed by the owner of the city, though I imagine Romer would consider that a frivolous response. They would then be accountable to the owner of the city, who would be accountable to the residents to the extent the owner would want to maximize revenue.

There are a number of other mechanisms which could be used for police. First, the police can be controlled by a non-profit. The board can be controlled by a mix of the owners, politicians, and other prominent individuals.

Another scenario, if there is a proliferation of private cities, is to unbundle the goods provided by each. Perhaps a firm dedicated to policing services will arise, and be contracted by the city itself. It has happened in Sandy Springs Georgia, among other places.

Another possible scenario is for an accreditation body to emerge which would rank various police departments. They would only give high scores to those police departments which taught best practices.

A private city would also likely lack sovereign immunity. It would be subject to lawsuits if it broke it’s founding charter. The charter could specify equal application of the law and due process procedures. Failing to follow these procedures would guarantee a loss in revenue.

Ultimately, I don’t know whether a private city would provide these goods and services or whether it would devolve into a corporate dystopia. I suspect Romer does not know either. Given our collective ignorance I would recommend, as Romer does, creating a set of meta rules for changing institutions on a local level. I would not limit the institutional experimentation, so long as the experimentation is not imposed on anyone. I would hope that Romer would not either.

Secession lagniappe

The Economist thinks Kurdistan draws near and defends their right to secede while recognizing their already near-independent status.  Here is the bottom-line:

Iraqi Kurdistan exists, in whatever form, in dangerous and shifting surroundings. But that has been the case since 1991, when it first got extreme autonomy, thanks to the no-fly zone imposed by America and its allies. Since then, it has steadily entrenched itself as the rest of Iraq has fallen apart, especially after IS grabbed a chunk of it. Never before has Turkey been so friendly to Iraq’s Kurds. Never before has the government in Baghdad needed the co-operation of the Kurds in Erbil so badly. Now, surely, is the Kurdish moment.

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The Kurdish distribution

“If we don’t decentralize, the country will disintegrate.”  Iraq.

Quotes from Artur Mas on Catalan independence.

Poroshenko thinks federalism for Ukraine is a terrible idea, but willing to put it to a vote.  Decentralize or perish.

SNP not ruling out a second referendum.  Cameron says no-go.  Is the SNP now trying to turn Brits against the Union?

The U.K., Spain, and Gibraltar

Do immigration and demographics put a time limit on Quebec separatism?

Secession talk in Western Australia is picking up.

Fantastic satellite photos of China’s continued island-building and Foreign Policy reports their airstrip is almost completed.

More Chinese warnings to Taiwan to stay put

Top Chinese official in Tibet wants temples and monasteries to spout propaganda, raise Chinese flag.

Vice with a great piece on the Yemeni conflict and with a focus on the southern secessionist role to-boot.  Recommended.  A piece:

This version of events fits into a popular narrative of a war in Yemen made up of two neat coalitions: on one side the Houthis, an Iranian proxy backed by Saleh, who hopes he can use the current conflict to restore his family to power. On the other, Sunni Yemenis from the north and south rallying around Hadi who are backed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states and intent on restoring Hadi to the presidency. It’s a story that helps make a complex country easier to understand. The problem for the Saudis is that many of those doing the fighting in the south have long shared a single goal — one that Hadi has said, explicitly and repeatedly, he does not endorse: independence from the north.

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Mike Gibson thinks technology will render governance models optional in the future:

The next 15 years will not pit the Washington Consensus against the Beijing Consensus — or other authoritarian models — but both of these against the Nakamoto Consensus. The diffusion of the smartphone, strong crytpography, and peer-to-peer decentralized public ledgers will weld individuals, networks and voluntary hierarchies into single units of sovereign power capable of opt-out and opt-in governance without precedent

Mark Lutter disagrees.  He is, however, bullish on competitive governance: The age of exit has arrived.  Some qualifying comments here

Thiel’s comments on peaking globalization from his conversation with Tyler Cowen:

If you want a long/short blue-state trade you want to be long California, short New York.  The long/short red-state trade by the way is you want to be long Texas and short Virginia…   Both Texas and California are actually sort of very inward-focused places.  California, both the Hollywood version and the Silicon Valley version are sort of very focused in on themselves and Texas is also a very inward-focused place.  And what D.C. and New York City have in common is they are centers of globalization.  Finance is sort of an industry that is fundamentally leveraged to globalization and D.C. is fundamentally leveraged to international geopolitics.  I would bet on globalization sort of slowly being in abeyance.  With the benefit of hindsight I think we will realize that 2007 was not just the peak year of the finance boom but also the peak year of globalization.

Arnold Kling on Thiel.  The Economist weighed in last December.  Trade as a % of world GDP has indeed stalled at 60% the last five years or so, although this has occurred a few other times in the post-war era.  Here is a chart I made using World Bank data.

Capture

Charles Murray’s new book thinks rolling back federal power through traditional means is futile and advocates civil disobedience and legal defense funds to litigate legislation to death.

Speculative thoughts on shareholder cities

Check out the Voice & Exit conference in Austin, TX in June

Musings on nations and national identity

Spontaneous order and traffic lights.  Video on the town of Poynton implementing a shared space intersection, as mentioned in the article:

How socialist were the Incas?

Anti-immigrant attacks are spreading in South Africa.

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Newsflash:  The Southern states are still distinct.

Libertarian defenses of Confederate secession are incoherent.

Liberty Cities” in Texas

Tiny Caribou, Maine is making progress on a split

Independence or statehood for Puerto Rico?

(Image source)

The age of exit

I wrote a piece for the Freeman arguing that we are in The Age of Exit.

Instead of ideological battles, the 21st century will be defined by political decentralization. Rather than enforcing a single political model as ideal for all of humanity, people will instead choose from a sort of political menu. Political decisions will be made on a more localized level, encouraging experimentation and innovation.

I think my thesis is broadly true. However, for a short article I was unable to discuss several challenges, namely, China, Russia, the Middle East, and the EU. China has SEZs, however they are unlikely to allow the same amount of political autonomy as European nations facing independence movements. China is also pursuing assimilation policies to wipe out the Uyghur population in Xinjiang that would be untenable in Western countries. Russia is recently aggressive, however the drop in oil prices makes them less dangerous. The Middle East is having their borders redrawn. They are largely tribalist but have a unifying element in the Muslim faith. The EU has centralized some functions lowering the cost of independence movements in Europe. My thesis is overstated to the extent I do have not accounted for these counter trends.

Ultimately changing geo-political trends are very complicated and will remain so. Humans will try to draw patterns out of limited data and extrapolate into the future without fully understanding the causes of the changes. I am certainly guilty of it. However, the mainstream narrative is currently missing an important trend, one that should be included in discussions of geo-politics, that of the increased power of political autonomy on a local scale.

The analog option

Michael Gibson has written an interesting post on “How to end bad governance.” The argument is that “The diffusion of the smartphone, strong crytpography, and peer-to-peer decentralized public ledgers will weld individuals, networks and voluntary hierarchies into single units of sovereign power capable of opt-out and opt-in governance without precedent.”

Unfortunately, I do not think the argument is correct. To understand we can differentiate between types of governance, contract governance and violence governance. Contract governance is the governance system we use to resolve contractual disputes. Violence governance is the governance system we use to resolve cases of direct violence of one person against another.

Violence is inherently territorial. A given condition of humans living together is a shared set of rules over when the use of violence is acceptable. Without these shared rules there would literally be chaos. Allowing someone to opt out of those rules means they would necessarily be dangerous. Any governance system must first solve the problem of violence. It remains unclear how the block chain can.

The problem of violence is currently solved by the state. This brings us to the analog option. No matter how much of our lives we move to the digital world, the state can always knock on our door and ask for money. There is always the analog option. Opting out of the state requires more than just electronic components, it requires an ability to solve the problem of violence and a way to prevent the current state from using its regulations. Both of these occur in the world of atoms, not the world of bytes. So yes, the block chain will likely revolutionize contractual arrangements. However, it is highly unlikely it will lead to the downfall of the state as we know it.